Bradley Turn
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Bradley Turn
Is there a positive skew in the polling statistics because of the bradley effect?

positive skew: The right tail is longer; the mass of the distribution is concentrated on the left of the figure. It has a few relatively high values. The distribution is said to be right-skewed. In such a distribution, the mean is greater than median which in turn is greater than the mode (i.e.; mean > median > mode); in which case the skewness coefficient is greater than zero. Example: 1,2,3,4,100

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skewness

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

The Bradley effect, less commonly called the Wilder effect,[1][2] is a proposed explanation for observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some US government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.[3][4][5] The effect refers to a supposed tendency on the part of some voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his or her white opponent.

The polls tend to be weighted to favor "democrats" as there are more registered democrats. This reality often swings back to the center the closer we get to election night. One thing I always watch is the poll dates and the margin of error, this is very telling. A poll with a date range of October 3 through the 24 will not fully reflect the trend today.

I do not like the so called "bradley effect" as it seems a bit racist in its assumptions.

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